Football Friday: Alabama and Georgia picks, plus why you should fade the Cowboys and 49ers on Sunday

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It's a Football Friday in the HQ PM Newsletter, and that means today's edition is bursting at the seams with picks to get you through the entire weekend. We've had a lot of success with these this season, and I'm optimistic our run will continue, starting with tonight's college football slate.

That said, I want to issue a disclaimer. My birthday is this weekend, so if these picks are wrong, you wouldn't want to yell at somebody on their birthday, would you? Of course not, so keep that in mind just in case.

Anyway, before we get to this weekend's picks, let's catch up on all the latest news.

All right, now let's win some money you can use on buying me a birthday gift.

All times Eastern, and all odds via Caesars Sportsbook

🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 5 Iowa at Maryland, 8 p.m. | TV: FS1
The Pick: Maryland +3 (+100): Iowa fans aren't fond of me right now, and this pick isn't going to help matters. I get it! The Hawkeyes are 4-0 and ranked No. 5 in the country with a blowout win over Indiana and a road win against rival Iowa State, yet I've been clear that I don't think the Hawkeyes are nearly as good as their ranking says they are. Yes, Indiana and Iowa State were ranked at the time, but neither are ranked now, and both are 2-2.

But it's not about resume; it's the Iowa offense. It's terrible. The Hawkeyes have relied on a defense to bail out an impotent offense time and time again, but this Maryland offense is the most explosive and dangerous offense Iowa will have faced this season. The Terps have an offensive success rate of 48%, which ranks 22nd nationally. Iowa State, the next-best offense Iowa has faced, ranks 66th. Iowa ranks 121st.

Iowa's defense is fantastic and will limit Maryland's explosiveness, but you cannot trust its offense on the road on a short week to score enough to cover. Particularly against a Maryland defense that isn't elite but has been above average.

Key Trend: Maryland is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: Two SportsLine experts and the Advanced Computer Model are in agreement on one side of the total tonight.

💰The Picks

🏈 NFL

Shaq Thompson Carolina Panthers — Getty Images

Panthers at Cowboys, Sunday, 1 p.m | TV: Fox
The Pick: Panthers +4.5 (-110) -- Is there anything you'd rather do than fade the Cowboys after they played well in a national spotlight game? "Did you hear the news? The Cowboys are good again!" I mean, sure, maybe they're good, or maybe they just beat up on a lousy team and are now being overvalued against a Panthers team that's been solid.

I'm leaning toward the latter!

Defensively, the Panthers have been monsters. They lead the NFL in sack rate (13.9 percent) and pressure rate (49.5 percent). Offensively, even without Christian McCaffrey, they've shown they can move the ball. Sam Darnold hasn't been spectacular, but he's avoiding the dumb mistakes that seem to come with playing in a Jets uniform. I know the Cowboys defense looked good against Philadelphia on Monday night. However, this is still a unit that hasn't done much to generate pressure on opposing quarterbacks, making them difficult to trust against competent teams.

Key Trend: The Panthers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as a dog.

Seahawks at 49ers, Sunday, 4:05 p.m | TV: Fox
The Pick: Seahawks +3 (-115) -- Were you surprised to see Green Bay come back late to rip San Francisco's heart out last week? You shouldn't have been because the 49ers were home favorites, and the 49ers have been awful as home favorites during the Kyle Shanahan era. Including the playoffs, San Francisco is 5-12-1 ATS as a home favorite under Shanahan and 3-12-1 during the regular season. Hell, they don't even have to be at home, as they're only 10-19-1 ATS as favorites under Shanahan everywhere. I don't know why, but it's hard to argue with the results.

This week the 49ers are home favorites against Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, and guess what? Do you know which QB has gone 27-14-2 ATS as an underdog in his career? That's right, it's Wilson. Of course, while those trends are hard to ignore, I'm also on the Seahawks here because they've been too good offensively to ignore. They just need to find consistency, and I think they'll find some against a San Francisco defense that hasn't done a whole lot to impress me yet.

Key Trend: The 49ers are 5-12-1 ATS as home favorites under Kyle Shanahan.

🏈 College Football

No. 8 Arkansas at No. 2 Georgia, Saturday, 12 p.m | TV: ESPN
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-110) -- Arkansas has been a godsend to bettors so far, not only going 4-0 on the field but 4-0 ATS. Unfortunately for me, I've been on the losing end of two of those four covers in this column. That changes this week because I'm not betting the spread. Truth be told, I'd lean Georgia's way if I were to take a side of the spread here. The Bulldogs have been the most complete team in the country. Still, I see far more value available on the total.

This game could play out one of two ways: either Georgia cruises to an easy win and suffocates the Arkansas offense like it has everybody else, or the Hogs keep it close with their defense and limit what Georgia can do offensively. Regardless, it should be a low-scoring affair since both teams have outstanding defenses. Georgia enters the game ranked first nationally in defensive success rate, while Arkansas isn't too far behind in 16th.

Key Trend: Both defenses rank in the top 20 nationally in success rate.

No. 12 Ole Miss at No. 1 Alabama, Saturday, 3:30 p.m | TV: CBS
The Pick: Alabama -14.5 (-110) -- Thinking back to last year's meeting, it seems like what most people remember is Ole Miss putting up 48 points on Alabama in Oxford. And it did! Unfortunately, the part that gets forgotten is the Rebels still lost by 15 because Alabama put up 63 points. Alabama actually got off to a slow start in that game. It scored on its first possession to tie the game at 7-7, but then fumbled deep in Ole Miss territory on its next possession and punted on its third. Then the Tide scored touchdowns on each of their final eight possessions.

My concern isn't the Ole Miss offense -- it's the defense that I'm not buying yet. The Rebels are improved in that area, but they still rank 60th nationally in defensive success rate against a schedule that hasn't been filled with incredible offenses. Plus, the Rebels didn't turn the ball over in this game last year and still lost by double digits. I think it'll be a different story in Tuscaloosa.

Key Trend: Alabama is 7-2 ATS in its last nine SEC games.

You can read all my college football picks for the weekend in my weekly column, The Six Pack

⚽ Soccer

Liverpool vs Manchester City, Sunday, 11:30 a.m | TV: NBCSN
The Pick: Liverpool (+185) -- This doesn't have anything to do with Manchester City playing PSG and losing earlier this week, as Liverpool had their own Champions League match. No, this is more a play on the fact the market hasn't caught onto Liverpool being really freaking good again. At some point, between Aston Villa beating Liverpool 7-2 early last season and the 50 injuries that followed, people forgot Liverpool were a damn juggernaut just a few months before. Now they're healthy again and starting to resemble that juggernaut.

So, to catch Liverpool as an underdog at home is way too much value to pass up. Plus, it's hard to ignore how different Man City have looked outside of Manchester this season. In all competitions, Manchester City have won four of five home matches and outscored opponents 22-4, including a scoreless draw against Southampton. When they've played on the road, City have won only two of five matches and been outscored 4-2. I think this match could be our last chance to take Liverpool before everybody catches on to how good they are again.

Key Trend: Liverpool has not lost a match this season. It's won seven and drawn twice.

You can read all my soccer plays for the weekend in my weekly column, Corner Picks

🔒 SportsLine Pick of the Day: No. 13 BYU and Utah State cap off Friday night's college football action, and the Advanced Computer Model loves one side of the spread.